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Spanish volcano has 40 per cent chance of erupting in the next 5 years, warn experts
Seismic activity has been increasing ‘abnormally’ in Tenerife and scientists admit that they are ‘worried’
Mount Teide in Santa Cruz de Tenerife last erupted way back in November of 1909 and has lain quiet ever since, but now there are rumblings and Spanish scientists admit that they are on high alert for a possible catastrophe in the future.
“There is no doubt that there has been anomalous seismic activity and an increase in gas emissions in the area since 2016 in Tenerife,” explained Luca D'Auria, director of the Volcanic Surveillance Area of the Volcanological Institute of the Canary Islands (INVOLCAN).
However, he emphasised that “today there is no reason to be alarmed, nothing indicates that there will be an eruption in the short term.”
Although the experts are closely monitoring the situation, there would need to be far more intense seismic activity to trigger an eruption. In fact, it would require an earthquake measuring 4 or more on the Richter scale, whereas all recent activity has hit no more than 1 or 2, “almost imperceptible micro-earthquakes.”
There are two scenarios that would bring us closer to an eruption, the experts pointed out. One, that the earthquakes gradually increase in intensity until the eruption occurs.
On the other hand, we could see a repeat of what happened in La Palma in 2021: just a few days before the eruption, intense seismic activity suddenly appeared out of nowhere.
So what is the probability of Teide erupting soon? “If we use statistics based on the data we have, the probability of an eruption this year would be around 2%, in the next 5 years, 40%, and in 100 years, it would be over 90%. But this is speculation, so anything can happen,” says Luca D´Auria.
The Canary Islands Government has called for “calm” and “prudence, pointing out that expert scientists do not see “signs of an eruption in the coming weeks or months.”
However, in the same breath he acknowledged that the archipelago is ultimately “a territory that, we cannot forget, has a volcanic origin”.
Meanwhile, with images of rivers of lava flowing through the streets of La Palma still fresh in their minds, locals living close to Mount Teide can’t help but feel slightly concerned.
“We don’t want to think about it too much, but the possibility of the volcano erupting at some point in the near future exists and it makes us worried and afraid,” explained Andrea, a resident of Vilaflor, a municipality in Tenerife very close to Teide.
The atmosphere on the island is one of tense calm, she continued, adding that residents are reassured that the experts “see no reason for alarm” and that they are grateful that the Canarian Government “is providing transparency and monitoring everything.”
Image: WMF via Wikimedia Commons
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