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Ever wondered what Spain might look like decades from now? The National Statistics Institute (INE) has just published its long-term projections through to 2076, and the picture is genuinely interesting, particularly for anyone who has chosen to make this country their home.

 

By 2076, Spain's population is expected to reach around 53 million, an increase of 3.4 million on today's figure. Here is the striking part though: that growth will come entirely from migration. The INE projects that deaths will consistently outnumber births throughout the period, meaning the population would actually shrink without continued positive net migration each year.

 

The proportion of people born in Spain is expected to fall significantly, from 79.8% of the population today to 59.6% by 2076. Births are projected to total around 5.3 million between 2026 and 2040, which is 6.2% lower than the previous fifteen-year period, with the number of children per woman rising only slightly, from 1.10 in 2024 to 1.16 by 2040.

 

Demographer Pau Miret, from the UAB's Center for Demographic Studies, describes the INE's projections as "conservative and based on current trends," adding a sobering observation: "As the larger generations pass away, the death rate will decrease, but we've done so poorly with the birth rate that there's no sign of a real recovery."

 

On the brighter side, life expectancy is expected to rise considerably, reaching 87 for men and 90 for women, gains of 5.6 and 3.5 years respectively. But Spain's population will also age noticeably. The proportion of people aged 65 and over, currently 21.1%, is projected to peak at 30.9% by 2076, while the working-age population, those between 20 and 64, will shrink from 60.9% to 54.5%. The knock-on effect is a dependency ratio, the balance between working-age people and everyone else, that is expected to hit 73.2% by 2076, the highest level on record.

 

Regionally, the picture varies considerably. Over the next 15 years, the Valencian Community is expected to grow by 16.4%, the Balearic Islands by 16.2% and Madrid by 14.4%, while Extremadura, Asturias and Castile and León are all projected to see population declines.

 

Perhaps the most relatable shift, though, is in how we will live. The INE's separate household projection shows that single-person households will overtake two-person households as the most common arrangement in Spain by 2041, with both reaching around 6.7 million households, roughly 30.5% of the total each. Average household size is expected to shrink from 2.49 people to 2.43.

 

Miret explains that this shift is closely tied to Spain's ageing population, with many single-person homes likely to be "widows' homes," reflecting both an older population and the gap in life expectancy between men and women in Spain. He also points to a quieter trend behind the rise in two-person households: parents increasingly being left as a couple once their children move out. "We will have to see what kind of households young people form in the future," he adds.

 

Meanwhile, migration itself is expected to ease slightly from its recent highs. Spain recorded a net migration gain of 626,268 people in 2024 alone, but Miret suggests this level of growth reflects a temporary "boom" that "cannot be sustainable in the long term due to the labor market."

 

It is a snapshot of a very different Spain decades from now: smaller families, an older population and a country shaped increasingly by the people who choose to move here.