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Electricity prices in Spain are heading back towards €300/MWh at certain times of day, as the summer solar boom fades and gas costs keep climbing.

 

According to OMIE, the average wholesale price on Tuesday October 20 was €195/MWh, rising above €270 after 8pm. Today’s average is forecast to be lower at €146/MWh, but the evening peaks will still go above €280 and reach as high as €299 once the sun sets and solar output drops away.

 

It comes just a couple of weeks after the wholesale price broke the €200/MWh barrier on Tuesday October 6 for the first time in almost four years. This is the price that sets the cost for households on PVPC tariffs, and the daily average has been topping €160, €180, €190 and even €201 for much of October. There have been a few breaks, with the average falling to €76 last Sunday, October 18, when it was sunny and windy, and barely passing €100 during the first two days of the long weekend.

 

Gas is the main reason behind the latest rise. Prices on the Iberian Gas Market (Mibgas) have gone up by more than €10/MWh in the last ten days and have stayed between €80 and €90 since the start of the month, with market forecasts suggesting they’ll hover around €80 until spring. September ended with daily gas trading at €72.99/MWh.

 

On Monday the daily price for October reached €87.8, while contracts for November, December and the first quarter of 2027 were being traded at €86.93, €87.18 and €86.44 respectively. That’s well above the €56.3 the market was expecting in September, although the futures for the whole of 2027 are at €70.68.

 

The shorter days and colder weather mean gas will be needed more often to meet demand for electricity, and Red Eléctrica is also continuing to rely on it in its reinforced operation to keep the system stable. Because gas influences the price of electricity, any rise there feeds straight through.

 

 

Image: Magnific